应用/云/模型平台
Expanded 100-stock report / industry-valuate
AGI / AI 全栈基础设施行业估值与 100 股情景预测
本版把覆盖范围从 50 股扩展到 100 股，并补充用户指出缺失的存储/HBM/NAND 层：SanDisk/SNDK、Samsung/005930.KS、SK Hynix/000660.KS 均已纳入。表格按 8 个领域分组，组内按加权 5 年年化 CAGR 倒序。
研究框架与情景分析，不构成投资建议。
综合评分80/100
覆盖股票100
领域层数8
HTML 图表base64 内嵌
1. 全栈 CAGR 情景
| 层级 | Bear CAGR | Base CAGR | Bull CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 应用/云/模型平台 | 8% | 18% | 29% |
| 模型/数据/中间件 | 10% | 25% | 38% |
| 算力半导体 | 12% | 25% | 42% |
| 存储/HBM/NAND | 8% | 22% | 40% |
| 半导体设备/EDA/IP | 7% | 15% | 26% |
| 网络/光通信/互连 | 10% | 24% | 45% |
| 服务器/ODM/数据中心 | 8% | 16% | 30% |
| 能源/电力/制冷 | 6% | 14% | 24% |
2. 领域汇总
| 领域 | 股票数 | 平均5Y收入CAGR | 平均加权年化CAGR | 平均质量分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 应用/云/模型平台 | 20 | 17.5% | 11.9% | 69.2 |
| 模型/数据/中间件 | 5 | 24.8% | 14.5% | 71.9 |
| 算力半导体 | 9 | 20.4% | 12.9% | 72.9 |
| 存储/HBM/NAND | 11 | 17.1% | 13.1% | 70.1 |
| 半导体设备/EDA/IP | 12 | 13.7% | 12.8% | 77.0 |
| 网络/光通信/互连 | 10 | 21.9% | 17.3% | 79.1 |
| 服务器/ODM/数据中心 | 15 | 16.2% | 14.5% | 72.2 |
| 能源/电力/制冷 | 18 | 12.7% | 11.3% | 72.9 |
3. 过去 2 年价格曲线（已内嵌，不依赖外部路径）
模型/数据/中间件
算力半导体
存储/HBM/NAND
半导体设备/EDA/IP
网络/光通信/互连
服务器/ODM/数据中心
能源/电力/制冷
4. /industry-valuate 五维估值
EV — A
- 成功概率：70%
- 预期回报：$160B-$280B incremental listed-company profit pool
- 判定：值得参与，但必须覆盖存储/HBM、网络光通信、服务器 ODM、电力制冷等瓶颈层，不能只买 GPU beta。
错误定价 — B+
- 热度指数：84/100
- 实际空间：79/100
- δ：-5，整体合理偏拥挤；新增的存储/HBM、亚洲供应链、能源电力层比纯应用 wrapper 更接近结构性错配。
Kelly — B+
- Full Kelly：34%
- Quarter Kelly：8.5%
- 总权益/风险预算的 6%-10%，单一子赛道不超过 15%，单票不超过 3%-5%。
Nash — A-
- 增长期向早期成熟过渡
- 70% Maker/基础设施瓶颈 + 30% Taker/应用产品
- 优先持有标准制定者、瓶颈供给者和平台收费者；应用层只选有数据/分发/工作流锁定的公司。
贝叶斯信号
| 信号 | 方向 | LR | 触发后概率 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-2027 hyperscaler capex 继续上修且订单兑现 | 利好 | 2.2 | 70% → 84% |
| HBM4/1.6T 光模块/液冷/电力并网交付快于预期 | 利好 | 2.0 | 70% → 82% |
| 推理使用量弹性大于单位成本下降 | 利好 | 1.8 | 70% → 81% |
| 云厂商披露 AI ROI 不足并削减 capex | 利空 | 0.38 | 70% → 47% |
| 模型效率跃迁导致算力需求低于线性外推 | 利空 | 0.55 | 70% → 56% |
| 电力/土地/监管约束导致数据中心延期 | 利空 | 0.62 | 70% → 59% |
5. 100 股领域分组排序表
排序规则：领域 group by；领域内按 加权年化CAGR 倒序。加权公式：20% Bear + 55% Base + 25% Bull。
应用/云/模型平台
| 股票 | 公司 | 层 | 角色 | 当前价 | 过去2年 | 5Y收入CAGR | Bear5Y | Base5Y | Bull5Y | 加权5Y收益 | 加权年化CAGR | 加权目标价 | Tier | AI暴露 | 质量分 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Microsoft | Hyperscaler + enterprise apps | Azure AI, Copilot, OpenAI infra | $370.28 | -16.0% | 22.0% | -5.0% | 130.0% | 240.0% | 130.5% | 18.2% | $853.50 | T1 | Very High | 92.4 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| META | Meta Platforms | Open model + ads | Llama, AI ads, consumer agents | $565.85 | 14.2% | 19.0% | -10.0% | 125.0% | 250.0% | 129.2% | 18.1% | $1,297.21 | T1 | Very High | 92.2 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | Model platform + search/ads | Gemini, TPU, GCP, Search AI | $348.32 | 95.8% | 17.0% | -15.0% | 120.0% | 220.0% | 118.0% | 16.9% | $759.34 | T1 | Very High | 90.1 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| AMZN | Amazon | Cloud AI + retail/ads | AWS Trainium/Bedrock, AI infra | $234.58 | 26.4% | 16.0% | -20.0% | 110.0% | 210.0% | 109.0% | 15.9% | $490.27 | T1 | Very High | 88.4 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| CRWD | CrowdStrike | Cybersecurity AI | Falcon AI security platform | $682.05 | 80.5% | 26.0% | -25.0% | 85.0% | 210.0% | 94.2% | 14.2% | $1,324.88 | T1 | High | 81.8 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| ORCL | Oracle | Cloud AI + database | OCI AI, Database vector search | $176.16 | 28.6% | 14.0% | -25.0% | 90.0% | 180.0% | 89.5% | 13.6% | $333.81 | T2 | High | 72.3 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| NOW | ServiceNow | Agentic workflow | Workflow AI agents | $92.58 | -37.4% | 24.0% | -25.0% | 80.0% | 200.0% | 89.0% | 13.6% | $174.98 | T2 | High | 72.2 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| ZS | Zscaler | Cybersecurity AI | Zero trust + AI security | $122.96 | -32.1% | 22.0% | -30.0% | 75.0% | 190.0% | 82.8% | 12.8% | $224.71 | T2 | High | 70.9 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| TSLA | Tesla | Vertical AI/robotics | FSD, Dojo, Optimus robotics AI | $407.20 | 123.0% | 18.0% | -45.0% | 65.0% | 220.0% | 81.8% | 12.7% | $740.09 | T3 | High | 63.9 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| S | SentinelOne | Cybersecurity AI | Autonomous AI endpoint/XDR security | $14.54 | -22.6% | 20.0% | -40.0% | 70.0% | 190.0% | 78.0% | 12.2% | $25.89 | T3 | Medium-High | 60.2 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| PANW | Palo Alto Networks | Cybersecurity AI | AI-driven network/cloud security | $286.79 | 81.1% | 18.0% | -15.0% | 70.0% | 160.0% | 75.5% | 11.9% | $503.32 | T1 | High | 77.8 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| PLTR | Palantir | AI applications | AIP, defense/commercial AI workflows | $120.48 | 398.7% | 32.0% | -45.0% | 55.0% | 170.0% | 63.8% | 10.4% | $197.29 | T3 | Very High | 63.4 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| APP | AppLovin | AI advertising | AXON AI ad engine | $465.73 | 496.7% | 26.0% | -50.0% | 55.0% | 170.0% | 62.8% | 10.2% | $757.98 | T3 | Medium | 53.4 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| CRM | Salesforce | Enterprise AI apps | Agentforce, Einstein, Data Cloud | $149.55 | -36.7% | 15.0% | -30.0% | 45.0% | 130.0% | 51.2% | 8.6% | $226.19 | T2 | Medium-High | 60.8 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| OKTA | Okta | Identity for AI agents | Identity, access governance, secure agentic enterprise | $114.95 | 30.1% | 12.0% | -30.0% | 45.0% | 120.0% | 48.8% | 8.3% | $170.99 | T3 | Medium | 50.0 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| ADBE | Adobe | Creative AI apps | Firefly, creative cloud AI | $192.74 | -63.2% | 10.0% | -20.0% | 45.0% | 110.0% | 48.2% | 8.2% | $285.74 | T2 | Medium-High | 60.0 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| WDAY | Workday | AI HCM/finance SaaS | AI assistant for HR/finance enterprise workflows | $112.91 | -48.4% | 10.0% | -20.0% | 45.0% | 110.0% | 48.2% | 8.2% | $167.39 | T2 | Medium | 56.6 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| AAPL | Apple | Edge AI platform | Apple Intelligence, on-device inference, custom silicon | $299.01 | 44.9% | 9.0% | -15.0% | 45.0% | 105.0% | 48.0% | 8.2% | $442.53 | T2 | High | 62.7 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| FTNT | Fortinet | Cybersecurity appliance/software | Security ASIC + AI security | $144.35 | 147.7% | 12.0% | -15.0% | 45.0% | 100.0% | 46.8% | 8.0% | $211.83 | T2 | Medium-High | 59.6 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| ACN | Accenture | AI services/SI | AI transformation consulting and systems integration | $119.55 | -59.9% | 8.0% | -15.0% | 40.0% | 90.0% | 41.5% | 7.2% | $169.16 | T2 | Medium | 54.9 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
模型/数据/中间件
| 股票 | 公司 | 层 | 角色 | 当前价 | 过去2年 | 5Y收入CAGR | Bear5Y | Base5Y | Bull5Y | 加权5Y收益 | 加权年化CAGR | 加权目标价 | Tier | AI暴露 | 质量分 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NET | Cloudflare | Edge AI/inference | Workers AI, edge security/inference | $217.22 | 176.3% | 28.0% | -35.0% | 100.0% | 260.0% | 113.0% | 16.3% | $462.67 | T2 | High | 77.0 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| SNOW | Snowflake | Data cloud | Enterprise data cloud + Cortex AI | $228.03 | 82.7% | 30.0% | -35.0% | 100.0% | 250.0% | 110.5% | 16.1% | $480.01 | T2 | High | 76.5 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| DDOG | Datadog | Observability | AI infra observability | $219.48 | 85.2% | 25.0% | -25.0% | 90.0% | 220.0% | 99.5% | 14.8% | $437.87 | T2 | High | 74.4 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| MDB | MongoDB | Operational database/vector | Atlas vector search, app data | $314.37 | 34.4% | 24.0% | -30.0% | 85.0% | 220.0% | 95.8% | 14.4% | $615.38 | T2 | High | 73.6 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| ESTC | Elastic | Search/vector database | Vector search, security observability | $57.75 | -47.0% | 17.0% | -30.0% | 60.0% | 160.0% | 67.0% | 10.8% | $96.44 | T3 | Medium-High | 57.8 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
算力半导体
| 股票 | 公司 | 层 | 角色 | 当前价 | 过去2年 | 5Y收入CAGR | Bear5Y | Base5Y | Bull5Y | 加权5Y收益 | 加权年化CAGR | 加权目标价 | Tier | AI暴露 | 质量分 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | GPU accelerator | GPU, CUDA, networking, AI systems | $208.82 | 77.1% | 38.0% | -15.0% | 120.0% | 280.0% | 133.0% | 18.4% | $486.55 | T1 | Very High | 92.9 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| MRVL | Marvell | Custom silicon/DSP | AI custom silicon, DSP, networking | $305.09 | 352.9% | 23.0% | -30.0% | 95.0% | 270.0% | 113.8% | 16.4% | $652.13 | T2 | High | 77.2 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| AVGO | Broadcom | AI ASIC/networking/DSP | Custom ASIC, Ethernet, optical DSP | $395.69 | 152.8% | 24.0% | -15.0% | 100.0% | 240.0% | 112.0% | 16.2% | $838.87 | T1 | Very High | 89.0 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| ARM | Arm | CPU IP | CPU IP for cloud/edge AI | $405.21 | 168.2% | 28.0% | -25.0% | 90.0% | 230.0% | 102.0% | 15.1% | $818.52 | T1 | High | 83.4 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| AMD | AMD | GPU/CPU accelerator | MI accelerators, EPYC CPUs | $545.17 | 240.2% | 28.0% | -35.0% | 80.0% | 240.0% | 97.0% | 14.5% | $1,073.98 | T2 | High | 73.9 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| TSM | TSMC | Advanced foundry | AI chips advanced-node foundry, CoWoS | $466.82 | 185.3% | 18.0% | -20.0% | 85.0% | 190.0% | 90.2% | 13.7% | $888.13 | T1 | Very High | 84.6 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| QCOM | Qualcomm | Edge AI SoC | On-device AI, NPU, smartphone/PC | $224.33 | 16.6% | 9.0% | -15.0% | 45.0% | 110.0% | 49.2% | 8.3% | $334.81 | T2 | Medium-High | 60.3 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| INTC | Intel | CPU/foundry turnaround | Xeon, Gaudi, foundry option | $140.40 | 362.2% | 8.0% | -35.0% | 35.0% | 120.0% | 42.2% | 7.3% | $199.72 | T3 | Medium | 48.3 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| ON | ON Semiconductor | Power/SiC/edge sensors | Power semis for AI energy systems | $129.80 | 91.5% | 8.0% | -30.0% | 35.0% | 95.0% | 37.0% | 6.5% | $177.83 | T3 | Medium | 46.9 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
存储/HBM/NAND
| 股票 | 公司 | 层 | 角色 | 当前价 | 过去2年 | 5Y收入CAGR | Bear5Y | Base5Y | Bull5Y | 加权5Y收益 | 加权年化CAGR | 加权目标价 | Tier | AI暴露 | 质量分 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 000660.KS | SK Hynix | HBM leader | HBM dominant supplier to AI GPUs | $2,919,000.00 | 1,229.2% | 26.0% | -25.0% | 115.0% | 280.0% | 128.2% | 17.9% | $6,662,617.50 | T1 | Very High | 92.0 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| MU | Micron | HBM/DRAM/NAND | HBM3E/4, DRAM, NAND | $1,188.59 | 761.0% | 24.0% | -35.0% | 90.0% | 260.0% | 107.5% | 15.7% | $2,466.32 | T2 | Very High | 79.6 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| WDC | Western Digital | HDD/NAND storage | AI data lake HDD, NAND exposure | $738.64 | 1,202.0% | 18.0% | -30.0% | 85.0% | 220.0% | 95.8% | 14.4% | $1,445.90 | T2 | High | 73.6 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| SNDK | SanDisk | NAND/flash storage | NAND flash, SSD/storage AI data growth | $2,314.86 | 6,330.2% | 18.0% | -35.0% | 80.0% | 230.0% | 94.5% | 14.2% | $4,502.40 | T3 | High | 66.6 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| 285A.T | Kioxia | NAND/SSD | NAND and enterprise SSD supplier | $108,700.00 | 6,689.5% | 16.0% | -35.0% | 70.0% | 210.0% | 84.0% | 13.0% | $200,008.00 | T3 | Medium-High | 61.6 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| P | Pure Storage | AI all-flash storage | FlashArray for AI training checkpointing and data pipelines; Yahoo symbol currently resolves as P | $77.13 | 22.8% | 17.0% | -30.0% | 75.0% | 190.0% | 82.8% | 12.8% | $140.96 | T2 | High | 70.9 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| STX | Seagate | Nearline HDD | AI data lake nearline HDD | $1,097.33 | 999.9% | 15.0% | -25.0% | 70.0% | 180.0% | 78.5% | 12.3% | $1,958.73 | T2 | High | 70.0 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| 005930.KS | Samsung Electronics | HBM/DRAM/NAND/foundry | HBM catch-up, memory, foundry | $353,500.00 | 356.6% | 16.0% | -20.0% | 70.0% | 170.0% | 77.0% | 12.1% | $625,695.00 | T1 | Very High | 81.8 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| PENG | Penguin Solutions | AI/HPC memory integration | Former SMART Global/SGH: Penguin Solutions AI/HPC integration and memory modules | $69.61 | 210.5% | 14.0% | -35.0% | 60.0% | 170.0% | 68.5% | 11.0% | $117.29 | T3 | Medium-High | 58.1 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| RMBS | Rambus | Memory interface IP | DDR/HBM interface IP/security | $137.63 | 157.6% | 12.0% | -20.0% | 60.0% | 150.0% | 66.5% | 10.7% | $229.15 | T2 | Medium-High | 64.4 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| SIMO | Silicon Motion | SSD controllers | NAND/SSD controller ICs | $339.44 | 355.6% | 12.0% | -25.0% | 50.0% | 140.0% | 57.5% | 9.5% | $534.61 | T3 | Medium | 52.1 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
半导体设备/EDA/IP
| 股票 | 公司 | 层 | 角色 | 当前价 | 过去2年 | 5Y收入CAGR | Bear5Y | Base5Y | Bull5Y | 加权5Y收益 | 加权年化CAGR | 加权目标价 | Tier | AI暴露 | 质量分 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BESI.AS | BE Semiconductor | Advanced packaging | Hybrid bonding/advanced packaging | $320.30 | 120.2% | 18.0% | -30.0% | 95.0% | 250.0% | 108.8% | 15.9% | $668.63 | T2 | High | 76.2 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| 6857.T | Advantest | Test equipment | AI/HBM/GPU test equipment | $32,170.00 | 459.6% | 16.0% | -20.0% | 85.0% | 210.0% | 95.2% | 14.3% | $62,811.93 | T1 | High | 82.0 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| CDNS | Cadence | EDA | AI chip design software | $382.81 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 5.0% | 88.0% | 175.0% | 93.2% | 14.1% | $739.39 | T1 | Very High | 85.2 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| ASML | ASML | EUV lithography | EUV monopoly for advanced AI chips | $1,890.27 | 91.9% | 16.0% | -15.0% | 85.0% | 195.0% | 92.5% | 14.0% | $3,638.77 | T1 | Very High | 85.1 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| KLAC | KLA | Process control | Inspection/metrology bottleneck | $266.22 | 240.6% | 13.0% | -10.0% | 85.0% | 180.0% | 89.8% | 13.7% | $505.15 | T1 | High | 80.9 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| SNPS | Synopsys | EDA/IP | AI chip design EDA/IP | $459.44 | -22.9% | 13.0% | -5.0% | 75.0% | 185.0% | 86.5% | 13.3% | $856.86 | T1 | Very High | 83.8 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| ASM.AS | ASM International | ALD deposition | Advanced node deposition | $1,079.00 | 57.8% | 14.0% | -25.0% | 75.0% | 180.0% | 81.2% | 12.6% | $1,955.69 | T2 | High | 70.6 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | Semi equipment | Deposition/etch/metrology for AI chips | $623.34 | 175.8% | 14.0% | -25.0% | 70.0% | 170.0% | 76.0% | 12.0% | $1,097.08 | T1 | High | 77.9 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| 8035.T | Tokyo Electron Japan | Semi equipment local | Tokyo Electron local listing | $77,800.00 | 132.4% | 13.0% | -20.0% | 70.0% | 160.0% | 74.5% | 11.8% | $135,761.00 | T1 | High | 77.6 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Etch/deposition | HBM/logic etch and deposition | $395.45 | 292.7% | 14.0% | -30.0% | 68.0% | 165.0% | 72.7% | 11.5% | $682.74 | T1 | High | 77.2 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| ONTO | Onto Innovation | Metrology/packaging | Advanced packaging metrology | $343.01 | 60.7% | 12.0% | -25.0% | 65.0% | 160.0% | 70.8% | 11.3% | $585.69 | T2 | Medium-High | 65.4 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| TER | Teradyne | Test equipment | Semiconductor test and robotics | $449.46 | 211.1% | 10.0% | -20.0% | 55.0% | 130.0% | 58.8% | 9.7% | $713.52 | T2 | Medium-High | 62.6 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
网络/光通信/互连
| 股票 | 公司 | 层 | 角色 | 当前价 | 过去2年 | 5Y收入CAGR | Bear5Y | Base5Y | Bull5Y | 加权5Y收益 | 加权年化CAGR | 加权目标价 | Tier | AI暴露 | 质量分 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent | Optical components | EML, VCSEL, lasers, optics | $433.70 | 504.5% | 22.0% | -30.0% | 160.0% | 340.0% | 167.0% | 21.7% | $1,157.98 | T2 | Very High | 90.1 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| LITE | Lumentum | Optical components/lasers | EML, CW lasers, OCS/R300 | $903.04 | 1,797.9% | 24.0% | -40.0% | 150.0% | 310.0% | 152.0% | 20.3% | $2,275.66 | T2 | Very High | 87.6 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| ANET | Arista Networks | AI Ethernet switching | AI fabric switches | $174.14 | 111.6% | 28.0% | -5.0% | 135.0% | 295.0% | 147.0% | 19.8% | $430.13 | T1 | Very High | 95.3 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| CRDO | Credo Technology | AEC/DSP connectivity | Active electrical cables, SerDes/DSP | $302.52 | 1,008.5% | 30.0% | -45.0% | 120.0% | 350.0% | 144.5% | 19.6% | $739.66 | T3 | Very High | 79.6 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| ALAB | Astera Labs | Connectivity silicon | PCIe/CXL retimers and AI connectivity fabric | $428.49 | 627.2% | 30.0% | -45.0% | 120.0% | 340.0% | 142.0% | 19.3% | $1,036.93 | T2 | Very High | 85.9 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics | Optical modules | High-risk optical module supplier | $176.17 | 1,932.0% | 25.0% | -60.0% | 80.0% | 300.0% | 107.0% | 15.7% | $364.67 | T4 | High | 62.3 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| FN | Fabrinet | Optical manufacturing | Optical module/CPO manufacturing | $623.04 | 162.1% | 18.0% | -30.0% | 95.0% | 240.0% | 106.2% | 15.6% | $1,285.01 | T2 | High | 75.7 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| GLW | Corning | Fiber/glass | Fiber/cabling, glass substrates | $210.98 | 447.6% | 11.0% | -20.0% | 90.0% | 200.0% | 95.5% | 14.3% | $412.47 | T2 | Medium-High | 70.8 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| MTSI | MACOM | RF/optical semis | Driver/TIA, lasers, RF for AI optics | $392.55 | 268.8% | 16.0% | -25.0% | 80.0% | 210.0% | 91.5% | 13.9% | $751.72 | T2 | High | 72.8 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| CIEN | Ciena | Optical transport | Coherent DCI/transport | $458.96 | 874.2% | 15.0% | -25.0% | 75.0% | 185.0% | 82.5% | 12.8% | $837.60 | B+ | High | 71.2 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
服务器/ODM/数据中心
| 股票 | 公司 | 层 | 角色 | 当前价 | 过去2年 | 5Y收入CAGR | Bear5Y | Base5Y | Bull5Y | 加权5Y收益 | 加权年化CAGR | 加权目标价 | Tier | AI暴露 | 质量分 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWV | CoreWeave | GPU neocloud | Specialized GPU infrastructure cloud | $112.54 | 181.3% | 35.0% | -55.0% | 120.0% | 350.0% | 142.5% | 19.4% | $272.91 | T2 | Very High | 86.0 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| NBIS | Nebius | GPU neocloud | European GPU cloud / AI infrastructure provider | $287.10 | 1,335.5% | 32.0% | -55.0% | 110.0% | 330.0% | 132.0% | 18.3% | $666.07 | T3 | Very High | 77.4 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| DELL | Dell | AI servers | PowerEdge AI servers, storage | $420.83 | 216.0% | 12.0% | -10.0% | 110.0% | 225.0% | 114.8% | 16.5% | $903.73 | T2 | High | 77.4 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| 6669.TW | Wiwynn | AI server ODM | Hyperscaler AI server ODM pure play | $4,855.00 | 514.8% | 18.0% | -30.0% | 100.0% | 250.0% | 111.5% | 16.2% | $10,268.33 | T2 | Very High | 80.4 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| CLS | Celestica | EMS/ODM | AI server manufacturing | $378.05 | 608.2% | 15.0% | -25.0% | 110.0% | 220.0% | 110.5% | 16.1% | $795.80 | B+ | High | 76.9 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| HPE | HPE | AI servers/networking | Cray, AI servers, Juniper networking | $48.44 | 148.6% | 13.0% | -15.0% | 100.0% | 230.0% | 109.5% | 15.9% | $101.48 | T2 | High | 76.4 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| FLEX | Flex | EMS/power | AI racks, power integration | $151.98 | 398.1% | 14.0% | -20.0% | 105.0% | 210.0% | 106.2% | 15.6% | $313.46 | B+ | Medium-High | 73.3 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| SMCI | Super Micro | AI servers | GPU servers/racks, high risk | $36.15 | -56.3% | 18.0% | -35.0% | 95.0% | 240.0% | 105.2% | 15.5% | $74.20 | T3 | Very High | 72.4 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| 2382.TW | Quanta Computer | ODM server | AI server ODM | $380.00 | 31.0% | 16.0% | -25.0% | 90.0% | 220.0% | 99.5% | 14.8% | $758.10 | T2 | High | 74.4 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| 3231.TW | Wistron | ODM server | AI server manufacturing | $162.50 | 56.5% | 15.0% | -25.0% | 85.0% | 210.0% | 94.2% | 14.2% | $315.66 | T2 | High | 73.3 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| 2317.TW | Hon Hai/Foxconn | ODM/EMS | AI servers/racks manufacturing | $268.50 | 38.5% | 12.0% | -20.0% | 70.0% | 180.0% | 79.5% | 12.4% | $481.96 | T2 | High | 70.2 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| 2324.TW | Compal Electronics | ODM server | Taiwan Big-6 AI server ODM | $37.50 | 14.6% | 12.0% | -25.0% | 70.0% | 180.0% | 78.5% | 12.3% | $66.94 | T3 | Medium-High | 60.4 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| 2356.TW | Inventec | ODM server | AI server manufacturing | $67.80 | 27.1% | 12.0% | -20.0% | 70.0% | 170.0% | 77.0% | 12.1% | $120.01 | T2 | Medium-High | 66.8 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| 4938.TW | Pegatron | ODM server | AI server system assembly and hyperscaler supply chain | $82.00 | -19.8% | 11.0% | -25.0% | 65.0% | 170.0% | 73.2% | 11.6% | $142.06 | T3 | Medium-High | 59.2 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| EQIX | Equinix | Data center REIT | AI colocation/interconnect | $1,115.07 | 54.7% | 8.0% | -15.0% | 40.0% | 95.0% | 42.8% | 7.4% | $1,591.76 | T2 | Medium-High | 58.6 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
能源/电力/制冷
| 股票 | 公司 | 层 | 角色 | 当前价 | 过去2年 | 5Y收入CAGR | Bear5Y | Base5Y | Bull5Y | 加权5Y收益 | 加权年化CAGR | 加权目标价 | Tier | AI暴露 | 质量分 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRT | Vertiv | Power/cooling | UPS, thermal, rack power | $353.51 | 297.6% | 22.0% | 5.0% | 103.0% | 230.0% | 115.2% | 16.6% | $760.59 | T1 | Very High | 89.6 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| LEU | Centrus Energy | HALEU enrichment | US HALEU enrichment for advanced nuclear/SMR fuel | $185.00 | 322.4% | 18.0% | -50.0% | 80.0% | 260.0% | 99.0% | 14.8% | $368.16 | T3 | High | 67.5 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| MOD | Modine | Liquid cooling | Rack-level liquid cooling for AI data centers | $290.29 | 207.9% | 16.0% | -30.0% | 85.0% | 230.0% | 98.2% | 14.7% | $575.50 | T2 | Very High | 77.8 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| NVT | nVent | Electrical enclosures/busbars | Rack-level power distribution | $182.53 | 136.9% | 15.0% | -5.0% | 77.0% | 189.0% | 88.6% | 13.5% | $344.26 | T1 | Very High | 84.3 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| GEV | GE Vernova | Power gen/grid | Gas turbines, grid, nuclear services | $1,121.87 | 532.4% | 15.0% | -20.0% | 80.0% | 180.0% | 85.0% | 13.1% | $2,075.46 | T1 | High | 79.9 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| CCJ | Cameco | Uranium/nuclear fuel | Nuclear fuel beneficiary for AI data center baseload | $107.86 | 114.7% | 13.0% | -25.0% | 75.0% | 190.0% | 83.8% | 12.9% | $198.20 | T1 | High | 79.6 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| PWR | Quanta Services | Grid EPC | Transmission/interconnection EPC | $736.27 | 169.1% | 15.0% | 5.0% | 78.0% | 141.0% | 79.2% | 12.4% | $1,319.03 | T1 | High | 78.6 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| FIX | Comfort Systems | MEP/HVAC contractor | Mechanical/electrical/HVAC buildout for AI data centers | $2,052.64 | 549.3% | 12.0% | -25.0% | 70.0% | 160.0% | 73.5% | 11.7% | $3,561.33 | T2 | High | 68.8 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| TLN | Talen Energy | Nuclear/AI DC power | Nuclear generation and AI data center power contracts | $436.98 | 264.1% | 11.0% | -25.0% | 65.0% | 170.0% | 73.2% | 11.6% | $757.07 | T2 | High | 68.8 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| ETN | Eaton | Electrical distribution | Switchgear, transformers, power distribution | $434.83 | 38.4% | 13.0% | 6.0% | 68.0% | 130.0% | 71.1% | 11.3% | $744.00 | T1 | High | 76.8 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| SU.PA | Schneider Electric | Electrical/data center power | Data center electrical and energy management | $292.75 | 33.2% | 10.0% | -10.0% | 55.0% | 125.0% | 59.5% | 9.8% | $466.94 | T1 | High | 74.1 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| BWXT | BWX Technologies | Nuclear components | SMR/reactor components for nuclear power buildout | $210.67 | 127.4% | 10.0% | -20.0% | 55.0% | 130.0% | 58.8% | 9.7% | $334.44 | T2 | Medium-High | 62.6 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| ABBNY | ABB | Electrification/automation | Switchgear, electrification, automation | $109.53 | 101.4% | 10.0% | -10.0% | 55.0% | 120.0% | 58.2% | 9.6% | $173.33 | T1 | High | 73.8 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| TT | Trane Technologies | Cooling/HVAC | Commercial HVAC/liquid cooling | $489.82 | 47.2% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 52.0% | 102.0% | 54.7% | 9.1% | $757.75 | T1 | High | 72.9 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| EME | Emcor | Electrical/mechanical contractor | Data center electrical/mechanical | $856.63 | 125.9% | 10.0% | 1.0% | 51.0% | 97.0% | 52.5% | 8.8% | $1,306.36 | T2 | Medium-High | 61.1 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| CEG | Constellation Energy | Nuclear power | 24/7 nuclear PPAs for AI data centers | $276.40 | 29.4% | 11.0% | -8.0% | 48.0% | 105.0% | 51.0% | 8.6% | $417.50 | T1 | Very High | 75.7 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| HUBB | Hubbell | Electrical grid equipment | Utility/data center electrical components | $534.62 | 44.4% | 9.0% | -12.0% | 48.0% | 105.0% | 50.2% | 8.5% | $803.26 | T2 | Medium-High | 60.5 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |
| VST | Vistra | Power generation | ERCOT power, nuclear/gas | $169.12 | 93.8% | 9.0% | -6.0% | 31.0% | 76.0% | 34.9% | 6.2% | $228.06 | T2 | High | 59.2 | canonical_100_universe_scenario_model |